Some in GOP oppose March release of population estimates

Washington:     Several Republicans are opposing a plan by the Census Bureau to release a second population count — this one more politically sensitive — to account for historically under-counted groups who may have been excluded from the figures released this week. [Dec. 29th]

That additional count, to be adjusted using a statistical method known as "sampling," could be pivotal for those states — like North Carolina — that must redraw their congressional district lines after Thursday's release of the initial figures used to redistribute the 435 House seats, which must occur every 10 years.

North Carolina, which grew at an unexpectedly high 21 percent clip since 1990, picked up a new congressional seat thanks to the new census numbers. State lawmakers will take the numbers and draw a new congressional district for 2002. They'll also redraw existing districts in what's expected to be one of the most heated political battles of the coming year.

South Carolina picked up 525,000, a 15 percent gain. Past estimates anticipated a 12 percent increase. South Carolina now has more than 4 million residents.

There were 281,421,906 million people living in America on April 1, the first Census 2000 results showed, more than 5 million higher than a previous estimate based on the 1990 count.

Census Director Kenneth Prewitt said the 281 million figure was slightly higher than a separate preliminary demographic analysis used to measure how accurate the count was. He stressed, though, that the higher figure did not mean the bureau counted every person in the country.

Enter sampling, over which the parties strongly disagree.

Democrats say the adjustment is necessary to account for traditionally under-counted groups — the poor, rural residents, minorities and children.

Some Republicans believe sampled data could leave the party at a disadvantage during redistricting, when states redraw their congressional district lines. Republicans, in general, also contend that a traditional headcount is most accurate and say Thursday's numbers prove it.

"Counting real people is more accurate than a computer model," Rep. Tom Davis, R-VA, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Friday. Davis added that he thought the GOP could gain 10 to 14 seats in 2002 as a result.

Chip Walker, spokesman for Rep. Dan Miller, R-FL, chairman of the House Government Reform Committee's census panel, said there's still "very legitimate scientific debate as to whether sampling will increase or decrease the accuracy of the census."

But Steve Jost, a spokesman for census director Prewitt, said: "For anybody today to talk about no need for adjustment, they are just glossing over the real issue.

"Until we get results from the sampling survey, its all speculation."

Tom Eisenhauer, spokesman for Texas Rep. Martin Frost, chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, said the Census Bureau should continue with its plan to release the sampled numbers.

He said Republicans were "spinning another fantastic doomsday scenario."

He also predicted gains for Democrats in 2002.

"Democrats will be in excellent position to retake the House," Eisenhauer said.

House members elected November 7 will remain in their current districts until the 2002 election, when the new allotment of seats takes effect. In most states, the legislature will redraw congressional district boundaries to account for those changes, as well as shifts in population within the state.

In March, the Census Bureau will release two sets of more detailed statistics that measure county and local-level populations to be used for redistricting. One set of numbers, if approved, will be sampled; the other will be "actual" unadjusted numbers.

Last year, the Supreme Court ruled that reapportionment must be based on the actual handcount.

But the justices left it up to the states to decide which set of data to use for reshaping political districts.

President-elect Bush has not said whether he will support release of the sampled data. President Clinton favors releasing the figures.

At least one nonpartisan analyst, Kimball Brace of Election Data Services, Inc., said Republicans may be in better shape going into redistricting because, overall, they hold more sway in state legislatures than 10 years ago.

Republicans will narrowly control the House in the next Congress, 221-211, with two independents and one vacancy.

But nonpolitical factors, including compliance with federal voting rights regulations and the threat of lawsuits, could erase thoughts of gerrymandering and make it hard to forecast which party has the upper hand, said Tim Storey, redistricting director for the National Conference of State Legislatures.